I'm not a gamer so I don't know much about the console world but I think you're right. I remember when the first PS came out and wiped the floor with everything. Fast forward a few years and the xbox started taking over and then the Wii came along and mopped up what was left (although it seems the Wii has waned a bit since).

Yes, AD dominates because Win server and Win desktop dominate in enterprise land. However, part of the reason Win server dominates is because of things like AD, Exchange, Sharepoint, SQL Server etc.

Re: biggest areas of future growth. Yep, that's why I said it was a serious weakness. However, just like with the xbox, MS has the money and patience to battle its way in to a new sector (i.e. modern smart phones). This doesn't of course explain why they've been fucking up the web side of things for so long. To be honest, I don't think they are ever going to re-establish themselves in the web sphere (from a developer perspective at least). *nix, open source in general (python, ruby, php, javascript), FF, Chrome, etc. just make sense in that space.

Basically, if Windows 8 is a flop and their Nokia merger smart phone plan doesn't work out, then I think words like "downfall" will suddenly become a lot more appropriate.

Also, to set the record straight, I'm not an MS fan boy. I run Windows 7 as my desktop but apart from that I spend my life inside putty terminals talking to, programming on and administrating Linux systems (specifically Debian). I even have an sdf.org email address FFS :D

You're right about the web but honestly they've been doing the same thing in mobile. They had an initial lead with their embedded windows stuff but they never progressed it. Competitors quickly surpassed it with them staying the same.

I think people are saying downfall precisely because they're playing catch up.