Intelligence and hard-work are extremely important, but it can't wholly make for experience.
How can you write about start-ups without ever having lived through a downturn? Sure, you can read about it, but the proper level of skepticism bordering on cynicism is impossible if all you've ever seen is the fat years.
If you've done enough mathematical analysis of previous downturns and trends, there is no need to experience one yourself. You can obtain all of the information you need to make better (future) predictions through objective study, and in my opinion this is much more effective than some sort of intuitive hunch accumulated through the years.
No, I'm not. I'm 22. I realize a lot of people older than me enjoy saying "I used to think the way you did, but now I've seen the light", but I've found myself to be fairly consistent over the years. I've had no epiphanies or deep insights into the "way things should be" just because I've gotten older. I think perhaps it is a psychological trick -- you just assume that some sort of deeper thinking comes as you age. There's a lot of great physicists who did their best work in their early 20s and never did much great afterwards because they got locked into one way of looking at things.
If you want, I'll get back on this thread in 15 years and tell you if you were right or not regarding additional accumulation of "deep knowledge" (whatever that vaguely-formed concept should represent).
>> "Are you 18? I would be surprised if you weren't."
At least to me, this comes across as sort of an arrogant comment that I really wouldn't expect on Hacker News. This whole "wisdom with age" is a lot of unfalsifiable nonsense the way I see it. Any sort of experiment I could propose would be shot down with "Oh, don't worry about it. There's just something magic about getting older, and well, you really can't say anything to challenge that.
It is true about physicists, also mathematicians (look at the Fields medal winners.)
On the other hand, novel writing is by and large a middle age and older persons' game. There are a handful of great novels from people in their twenties, but most of those authors go on to write even greater works later in life.
There are advantages and disadvantages to youth. Trying to pretend that everyone is equal and it is all a matter of how hard you try is one of the great fallacies of our era.
How can you write about start-ups without ever having lived through a downturn? Sure, you can read about it, but the proper level of skepticism bordering on cynicism is impossible if all you've ever seen is the fat years.