You're getting downvoted because luck isn't actionable, it's just a post-hoc explanation of events. There's always someone who wants to make themselves feel better about their lack of success by attributing others' to luck.
But here's the thing, we are all continuous actors in our own lives. Successful founders have a healthy vision of what they can control and what they can't, and they try to maneuver their companies into a position to succeed based on the state of the world as they see it at the time. What looks like luck from 30,000 feet was actually the result of a concerted effort day-in and day-out, usually over the course of years, to put themselves in a position to succeed. The fact that there success isn't reproducible, or that they weren't in control of everything does not mean that they succeeded because luck. That's a lullaby that wantrepreneurs tell themselves to protect their egos, but it's poisonous to ones ability to build something successful.
"Successful founders have a healthy vision of what they can control and what they can't, and they try to maneuver their companies into a position to succeed based on the state of the world as they see it at the time. What looks like luck from 30,000 feet was actually the result of a concerted effort day-in and day-out, usually over the course of years, to put themselves in a position to succeed"
...
Isn't calling something a "healthy vision" also a post-hoc explanation of events? I see people putting in "a concerted effort day-in and day-out... to put themselves in a position to succeed" but they generally don't know ahead of time all those factors necessary, so after several years of not succeeding... what did they do wrong?
Each path to 'success' at the level most people think of it, with respect to deca-millionaire levels of wealth - generally doesn't appear to be reproducible at all.
The difference that I'm trying to highlight is that calling something "luck" takes away the responsibility of the actors. This is a dangerous mentality for a founder, because their own actions and decisions are all they have in the pursuit of success.
> I see people putting in "a concerted effort day-in and day-out... to put themselves in a position to succeed" but they generally don't know ahead of time all those factors necessary, so after several years of not succeeding... what did they do wrong?
They took wrong actions in pursuit of their goals. Whether they can pinpoint specific actions is up to the individual, and ultimately it's a guessing game. But to throw your hands up and declare luck is a weak-minded excuse—certainly we must acknowledge that given infinite possibilities, success was possible, they just didn't find the right path.
"calling something "luck" takes away the responsibility of the actors. This is a dangerous mentality for a founder, because their own actions and decisions are all they have in the pursuit of success."
On the other hand, I've met plenty of depressed, completely delusional startup founders who were convinced that their business failure meant that they did something wrong, because hey...it's never luck, right?
You're setting up a false dichotomy: it's possible -- essential, really -- too acknowledge that luck plays the most important part in any startup. You still have to maximize your chances of getting lucky, and that's the part you can control.
Luck is a necessary but not sufficient condition. Any success story that does not acknowledge that some level of unforseeable fortune contributed to the success is someone deluding themselves, or trying to mislead you, possibly to sell you a book.
Looking forward we should ignore luck, because as you note it's not actionable. But when looking backwards we should take it into account.
For example: don't let "bad luck" prevent you from starting a company, and don't get discouraged by others' "good luck."
But, after failing or succeeding, you should be realistic with yourself and admit luck played a role.
If you've been successful: realize that your success is not 100% the fruit of your efforts -- be a bit humble about how you got where you are.
If you've failed: realize that perhaps you just drew a bad hand and maybe it's not the right environment for your idea -- don't be too down on yourself, and don't be afraid to try again.
hindsight vision is always 20/20. certainly luck isn't all that is required, but despite making the 'right' moves, there's an ocean filled with dead businesses or startups at the bottom. Nobody likes to talk about the fact that these were led by smart people, had everything right going for them until they find themselves in new waters and submerge. It's not at all attractive to write about those that have fallen and that anybody could be next. We don't like talking about it because it is scary. Nobody can predict the waves with 100% certainty. Today's champions maybe tomorrows losers, today's losers maybe tomorrows champions. It's naive to assume that you have complete control over all aspects of your business or life. More often, humanity's greatest innovations have arisen by accident or when they were looking for something and ran into something else. Ask yourself, when was the last time something went exactly as you planned? If you answered 'often', you haven't really tried anything worthwhile.
But here's the thing, we are all continuous actors in our own lives. Successful founders have a healthy vision of what they can control and what they can't, and they try to maneuver their companies into a position to succeed based on the state of the world as they see it at the time. What looks like luck from 30,000 feet was actually the result of a concerted effort day-in and day-out, usually over the course of years, to put themselves in a position to succeed. The fact that there success isn't reproducible, or that they weren't in control of everything does not mean that they succeeded because luck. That's a lullaby that wantrepreneurs tell themselves to protect their egos, but it's poisonous to ones ability to build something successful.